US Should Plan For ‘Unimaginable’ Floods: WWA
Hurricanes as intense as Helene are about 2.5 times more likely
Climate change worsened the heavy rainfall and winds generated by Hurricane Helene, leaving at least 227 people dead across six states, a rapid analysis by a team of leading scientists found.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA) experts urge inland regions of the US to plan for ‘unimaginable’ hurricane floods made more likely with fossil fuel warming. The study, which combined three different methods of extreme weather attribution and a vulnerability and exposure analysis, found:
● Hurricanes as intense as Hurricane Helene are today about 2.5 times more likely in the region – they were expected to occur on average every 130 years and are now expected with a 1 in 53 chance in any given year.
● Hurricane Helene’s wind speeds on the coast of Florida were about 13 mph (21 km/h) or 11% more intense due to climate change.
● Climate change increased Hurricane Helene’s rainfall by about 10%.
● The high sea temperatures that fueled Hurricane Helene were made 200-500 times more likely by climate change.
The US needs to plan for ‘unimaginable’ floods, not just on the coast, as hurricane downpours increase. Ben Clarke, Researcher at Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, said: “Climate change is a total game-changer for hurricanes like Helene. “As a result of fossil fuel-driven warming, it dumped around 10% more rainfall, creating apocalyptic scenes across the US southeast. “If humans continue to burn fossil fuels, the US will face even more destructive hurricanes.” Hurricane Helene left a trail of devastation more than 500 miles (800 km) long across the US Southeast in late September. Fueled by ultra-warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico of about 3.6°F (2°C) above average, the hurricane intensified rapidly, transforming from a Category 2 to a Category 4 storm just a few hours before slamming into the Florida Big Bend.
Helene’s sustained winds reached 140 mph (225 km/h) at landfall, driving a record-breaking storm surge up to 15ft (4.5m) high that flooded coastal areas and forced some residents to swim from their homes.
Helene then dropped huge amounts of rainfall inland causing extreme flooding in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. At least 227 people died, making Helene one of the deadliest US hurricanes in the last 50 years, second only to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy
