China’s CO₂ Emissions Show a Falling Trend Amid Rising Clean Energy Output

A new analysis by Carbon Brief reveals that China’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions were unchanged year-on-year in Q3 2025, extending a flat or declining trend that began in March 2024 and has now persisted for 18 months.

The report coincides with the opening of COP30, where world leaders will debate strategies to bridge the global emissions gap and translate fossil fuel phase-out agreements into actionable commitments.

Earlier, President Xi Jinping unveiled China’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) at the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Summit in New York. The new plan — China’s first to cover the entire economy and all greenhouse gases — pledges a 7–10% economy-wide emissions reduction by 2035, based on peak levels. However, climate experts say this falls short of the 30% cut needed to align with the Paris Agreement.

Emissions Near Inflection Point

After the first three quarters of 2025, China’s CO₂ emissions stand delicately balanced between a slight rise or fall, hinging on Q4 performance.

A 3% year-on-year decline in September emissions has made a full-year drop increasingly likely. Historically, emissions spike in the summer months due to rising air conditioning demand amid record-breaking heatwaves.

If this seasonal pattern repeats, China could record its first annual fall in CO₂ emissions in years.

While a 1% swing may seem minor, it carries symbolic weight, as China’s policymakers have previously allowed room for emissions to increase until later in the decade. Either way, the country is expected to miss its 2020–2025 carbon intensity target, meaning steeper cuts will be required to achieve its 2030 goals.

Sectoral Insights: Key Findings

• Transport: CO₂ emissions from transport fuels fell 5% year-on-year, driven by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).

• Power Sector: Despite a 6.1% rise in electricity demand, emissions remained flat, thanks to robust growth in solar (up 46%) and wind power (up 11%).

• Renewables: China added a record 240GW of solar and 61GW of wind capacity in the first nine months of 2025, setting the stage for a new clean energy record.

• Industry: Declines in cement and steel output were offset by surging coal and oil use in the chemical sector.

• Outlook: Full-year emissions could see a marginal rise or fall, with data suggesting a gradual decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions.

Renewables Drive Stability in Power Emissions

The power sector, China’s largest source of CO₂, saw no net increase in emissions during Q3 despite rising energy consumption. Non-fossil sources — solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower — met nearly 90% of the additional electricity demand.

Clean energy has been expanding fast enough to cover nearly all new electricity demand in recent quarters. However, whether this balance continues will depend on how quickly renewable generation can outpace electricity demand in coming years.

Chemical Industry’s Oil Appetite Offsets Transport Decline

While transport fuel demand has fallen steadily since April 2024, total oil consumption rose 2% in the year to September, driven by industrial demand.

Consumption of diesel, petrol, and jet fuel dropped 4–5% each, with petrol use falling sharply by 8% in October. Meanwhile, the chemical sector — particularly production of plastics (+12%), chemical fibres (+11%), and ethylene (+7%) — accounted for most of the rise in industrial oil consumption.

Outlook: China’s Turning Point on Carbon

China’s emissions trajectory in 2025 suggests a potential early peak, years ahead of official targets. But the country’s growing chemical output and uneven industrial recovery continue to pose challenges.

With record clean energy deployment and steady electrification of transport, analysts say China’s carbon emissions may enter a period of sustained decline from 2026 onward, marking a pivotal shift in the global fight against climate change.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy