COP30 Climate Pledges Lean Heavily on Land-Based Solutions, Study Warns

A new analysis released today at the COP30 climate summit warns that national climate plans are failing to prioritize the most effective and immediate pathway for reducing emissions — halting and reversing deforestation. Instead, countries are turning to unrealistic levels of land-based carbon removal, including large-scale tree planting and bioenergy projects, to meet net-zero targets.

The report, The Land Gap 2025, led by the University of Melbourne, reveals that countries collectively propose using more than 1 billion hectares of land — an area larger than Australia — for carbon removal. Experts caution this reliance is not only unachievable but also poses serious risks for Indigenous peoples, local communities and smallholder farmers.

Global Economic Pressures Driving Forest Destruction

Lead author Kate Dooley explains that the limited focus on forest protection is rooted not just in insufficient climate finance but in a global economic system that forces developing nations to exploit forests for revenue.

“Countries live in a world where heavy sovereign debt burdens and industry-friendly tax and trade policies force them to exploit forests to keep their economies from crashing,” Dooley said. “Yet the irony is that healthy forests are fundamental to long-term economic stability.”

The study highlights two major flaws in COP30 climate plans:

• The Land Gap: A vast mismatch between the scale of land governments rely on for carbon removal and what is realistically available.

• The Forest Gap: A gulf between global commitments to halt deforestation by 2030 and the actual outcomes projected under existing climate pledges.

Even with COP28 commitments to halt deforestation, the report finds the world is on course to lose 4 million hectares of forest annually by 2030, with an additional 16 million hectares degraded — a forest gap of 20 million hectares.

Debt, Tax and Trade Policies Underpinning the Crisis

The report identifies structural forces pushing countries toward forest exploitation:

1. Sovereign Debt Burdens

Many biodiversity-rich nations face steep debt repayment schedules and austerity measures that push them to expand logging, mining and industrial agriculture. Cameroon is cited as an example where debt and IMF-mandated austerity accelerated forest loss over two decades.

2. Tax System Failures

Illicit financial flows and cross-border tax abuse drain government revenues, weakening forest governance. The authors highlight the potential of the proposed UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation and Brazil’s G20-backed proposal for a global wealth tax that could raise $200–$500 billion annually.

3. Trade Rules That Favour Commodity Traders

Current trade regimes encourage large-scale agricultural expansion — the biggest driver of deforestation — while limiting the power of local communities and national regulators. The authors support emerging efforts to reshape agricultural trade around sustainable food systems and smallholder farmers.

Current Climate Finance Mechanisms Fall Short

Innovative climate finance tools like the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) are promising but insufficient, generating only $3–4 billion annually compared to the $117–$299 billion required to meet 2030 forest targets, according to the Forest Declaration Assessment.

A Call for Systemic Reform at COP30

Kate Horner, co-lead author, stresses that climate progress hinges on addressing the structural economic barriers driving deforestation. “Reform will be difficult,” Horner said, “but efforts already underway could lead to healthier economies, forests and communities. The consequences of failure — escalating forest destruction and rising climate risks — make inaction unacceptable.”

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy