Rising Climate Extremes Are Critical Risks to Election Preparedness

Climate risks such as rising heat, humidity, thunderstorms and lightning are emerging as a significant concern as West Bengal, Kerala, Assam and Tamil Nadu, along with the Union Territory of Puducherry, head to the polls in April. Approximately 17.4 crore electors are likely to exercise their vote across 824 Assembly constituencies. 2.19 lakh polling stations are being set up, with 25 lakh election officials on duty. The elections fall in the pre-monsoon season (March to May), which is now the heatwave period in northwest and central India.

Rising climate extremes are emerging as critical risks to election preparedness. The states are expected to face a mix of hot and humid weather, thunderstorms and thunderstorms, and lightning, becoming more intense and unpredictable year after-year. Recent trends show April weather shifting towards hotter, more erratic, and extreme conditions, with direct implications for voter safety, turnout, and election logistics. This raises an important question: Should climate risk preparedness now be treated as a core component of election planning alone or climate resilience protocol, disaster management etc should also be a part of it.

Experts suggest that heat mitigation measures at polling booths to contingency plans for storms and disruptions, there is a growing need for embedding climate resilience into election protocols. Extreme weather poses a possible threat to:

• Reduce voter turnout due to unsafe conditions

• Increase health risks for voters and polling staff

• Disrupt polling infrastructure, especially in rural and vulnerable regions

Climate statistics over the past five years (2021-2025) for April, based on the data by the Indian Meteorological Department, show a clear shift toward hotter, more humid, and more unpredictable April weather across these regions with increasing extreme events. April 2022 was among the warmest on record, with temperatures 1.36°C above normal, while recent years have seen sharp swings in rainfall from significant deficits to excess precipitation alongside a rise in heavy thunderstorms and intense lightning. For election-bound states, this translates into heightened risks for voter safety, turnout, and election management.

According to the latest forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department, Assam is likely to witness fairly widespread rainfall and thundershowers in the week leading to elections, while West Bengal would see scattered rains. The weather activity might include thunderstorms, lightning, and episodes of thundershowers.

Meanwhile, the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala are likely to experience intensifying heat and high humidity. These conditions pose a threat of creating dangerous “wet-bulb” conditions that significantly increase heat stress and health risks like heat strokes, etc. In fact, the entire East Coast is likely to battle above-normal heatwave days over coastal areas of poll-bound West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

Embedding Climate Resilience in Election Planning

With April weather becoming increasingly volatile, there is a growing need to integrate climate risk preparedness into election planning — including heat mitigation measures, contingency plans for storms, and improved safety protocols for frontline workers.

“These evolving climate conditions could directly impact elections in several ways, like reduced voter turnout due to heat and discomfort, heightened health risks for voters and polling personnel, and operational disruptions caused by extreme weather events. We are already at the peak of pre-Monsoon activities, which have been on the rise due to rising temperatures fueled by climate change,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

According to election experts, climate risk preparedness should and is already being integrated into election guidelines to some extent. They have, however, called for standard operating procedures, ensuring coordination between election authorities, meteorological agencies, disaster management bodies, and local administrations. As climate extremes intensify, embedding such measures is critical to safeguarding both democratic participation and human safety.

“Most of the political leaders and representatives in our country and the world over dismiss most of the climate concerns around the elections or election-related activities. However, in our country, the Election Commission of India (ECI) considers all these parameters while planning for the elections.

Keeping temperature rise in mind, ECI makes sure that voting starts very early in the morning, around7 am and goes on till late evening, 6-6:30 pm. Polling station trackers are also being provided that tell about the queue footfall at the polling stations, so one can plan accordingly. Disabled voters also have an option to cast their vote from home after fulfilling the required mandates. These are the precautions taken by ECI so that climate issues do not impede the voters,” said O P Rawat, Former Chief Election Commissioner.

He further added. “We should now focus on how elections are contributing to climate change. There is a large use of flexes and plastic materials during rallies and public meetings. There is also a lot of fuel consumption during election campaigning. These things need to be curbed. ECI is already taking stock of some things, like one cannot hold motorcycle rallies unless they are granted permission. I am sure the current election commission is thinking more and trying to broaden the prospects of how elections do not interfere with climate concerns. I feel that ‘one nation one poll’, which might see light in 2034, can solve the climate problem to some extent. It can be decided by the Parliament, if they can hold elections during November, December or January, keeping the Parliament sessions,examinations and weather in mind.”

Contingency planning must also include infrastructure resilience, such as backup power, secure communication systems, and alternative transport arrangements in case of weather-related disruptions. For frontline workers, including polling staff and security personnel, clear safety protocols, training, and protective measures are essential to reduce exposure to extreme heat and storm risks.Climate change is no longer a background factor but a frontline risk shaping India’s democratic processes.

Rise in pre-Monsoon rains and heat due to climate change to intensify further

According to a recent study ‘Changing dynamics of pre-monsoon rainfall over India (1963–2022): The role ocean-atmosphere drivers and regional impacts’, a marked intensification of Pre-Monsoon Rainfall (PMR) has been witnessed during the recent three decades of 1993-2022, with significant increases in both rainfall amount and the frequency of rainy days over southern, central, and westernIndia, while northern and northeastern regions exhibit notable declines.

This spatial reorganisation of rainfall is closely linked to basin-wide Indian Ocean warming, particularly over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, which has enhanced atmospheric moisture availability and convective potential. Overall, the results suggest that the combined influence of large-scale oceanic warming and locally enhanced convective instability has created a more favourable environment for pre-monsoon convection over India in recent decades.

“The sustained warming of the Indian Ocean basins, coupled with evolving land–atmosphere feedbacks, can modify low-level moisture transport, convective instability, and upper-tropospheric ventilation, which are key regulators of pre-monsoon rainfall variability. The Indian Ocean has warmed more rapidly than any other tropical basin, with parts of the western region warming by more than 1°C during the 20th century. This has altered moisture convergence zones, and increased atmospheric water vapour content, all of which profoundly influence pre-monsoon convection,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

Key Climate Trends during the last five years (2021–2025) during April

Rising Temperatures: April temperatures have remained consistently above normal in most years, with 2022 recording one of the warmest Aprils on record (+1.36°C anomaly) and 2025 continuing the trend with temperatures ~0.86°C above normal. All four states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Assam have seen record or near-record warming trends. East & Northeast India recorded the highest minimum and average mean temperature in April, 2024 since 1901, while South Peninsula witnessed the highest minimum and mean temperature in the same period.

Erratic Rainfall Patterns:

Rainfall variability has increased significantly, as 2024 saw 20% below normal rainfall nationally. Meanwhile, 2023 witnessed above-normal rainfall (+5%) with regional deficits in East/Northeast India (-48%). 2025 shows mixed extremes, with excess rainfall in peninsular India (+60%) and deficits in East/Northeast (-21%).

State-wise Number of Human Lives Lost due to Natural Extreme Events

Increase in Extreme Weather Events:

The highest number of human deaths due to natural extreme weather events was recorded across India in 2013-14 (5,677), while the 2024-25 (provisional) value also shows a rise, with 3,080 deaths. The data on the number of deaths due to various natural calamities in India from 2017 to 2022 showed that lightning consistently caused the highest number of deaths, with figures ranging from 2,357 in 2018 to a peak of 2,887 in 2022, and generally constituted the largest percentage of total deaths.

Heat stroke also appears as a significant cause of mortality, particularly in 2017 and 2022. While the total number of deaths fluctuated each year, lightning and heat stroke were persistent major contributors. Other causes like floods, cyclones/ tornadoes/ tsunamis and causes other than those listed also contributed to the total deaths, but generally to a lesser extent than lightning. The category “Causes other than above” shows a general increasing trend in both the number and percentage of total deaths attributed to ‘Sources of Nature’ in the last six years. Frequent heavy to very heavy rainfall events have occurred across Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. They have been a result of rising thunderstorms, lightning, hailstorms and gusty winds linked to active western disturbances and moisture incursions.

Heatwave conditions were also seen expanding geographically, with multiple heatwave days recorded across central and peninsular India. Coastal states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala are increasingly experiencing high humidity and wet-bulb temperatures, amplifying heat stress and health risks. Tamil Nadu has seen a significant increasing trend of +0.68°C/100 years in the averaged annual mean temperature series for the period 1901-2023.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy