Challenges Posed By Climate Change And Sustainability Of Indus Water System

India has officially placed the Indus Waters Treaty in suspension following the Pahalgam terror attack, citing Pakistan’s sustained cross-border terrorism. The suspension of the 64-year-old Indus Waters Treaty by India is the answer to the massacre of its innocent people.

More than 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and around a third of its hydropower depend on the Indus basin’s water. Experts say that if India begins controlling the flow with its existing and potential infrastructure, Pakistan could feel the impact during the dry season, when water availability is already at its lowest. Pakistan is already facing extreme heat conditions due to climate change.

IWT:

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan with the help of the World Bank. Seen as one of the most successful international treaties, it has survived frequent tensions, including conflict, and has provided a framework for irrigation and hydropower development for more than half a century. It Came into force on 12 January 1961, upon the exchange of the instruments of ratification at New Delhi. The treaty allocated the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej – of the Indus basin to India, while 80% of the three western ones – the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – to Pakistan.

Effect of Climate Change :

The treaty has served as a cornerstone of stability in the region for over six decades, but climate change and changing water demands in India have raised questions about its relevance and efficacy in the current context. Climate change is causing alterations in precipitation patterns, temperature, and the frequency and severity of droughts and floods, which in turn impacts the water availability and quality in the Indus River system.

Due to melting glaciers in the Himalayas, which are the primary source of water for all Himalayan Rivers is also reduced. The Indus river is also affected by glacier melt of Hindu Kush glaciers. The reduced flow of water can lead to water scarcity and affect the ability of both India and Pakistan to meet their water demands.Indus river can become a seasonal river by 2050

Disagreement over hydroelectric power :

Disputes have flared in the past, with Pakistan objecting to some of India’s hydropower and water infrastructure projects, arguing they would reduce river flows and violate the treaty. The disagreement on treaty between India and Pakistan began with the Kishenganga (330 megawatts) and Ratle (850 megawatts) hydroelectric power plants. The court upheld India’s right to proceed with the Kishanganga project. While ensuring a minimum flow of 9 cumecs (m3/s) downstream to Pakistan.

The Ratle Hydroelectric Plant is also a run-of-the-river hydroelectric power station, with permitted pondage under the Indus Water Treaty, currently under construction on the Chenab River, downstream of the village near Drabshalla in Kishtwar district of the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan raised objections which are being parallelly undergoing arbitration by a Court of Arbitration (CoA) and a World Bank-appointed Neutral Expert.

Water Storage: Indian experts say inadequate infrastructure has kept India from fully utilising even its 20% share of the Jhelum, Chenab and Indus waters under the treaty – a key reason they argue for building storage structures, which Pakistan opposes citing treaty provisions. To address the challenges posed by climate change to the Indus Water system, it will be necessary for India and Pakistan to work together to implement adaptive measures, such as improving water storage and management practices, to ensure the long-term sustainability of the river and its tributaries.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy