Climate Change Brewing a Global Coffee Crisis as Heat, Erratic Weather Push Prices Higher

Climate change is emerging as one of the strongest drivers behind rising coffee prices worldwide, as warming temperatures and unpredictable rainfall increasingly threaten coffee cultivation across major producing regions.

A new analysis by Climate Central reveals that fossil-fuel emissions have added 57 additional days of coffee-damaging heat every year across the world’s top five coffee-growing countries. The findings underline a growing reality: producing coffee is becoming significantly more difficult.

Coffee Farming Under Stress

Farmers in Colombia, Brazil, Indonesia and other major producing nations are struggling to maintain both yield and quality. Coffee plants thrive within a narrow temperature range, and even small increases in heat can disrupt flowering, fruit development, and bean formation.

Rising average temperatures, coupled with erratic rainfall patterns, are affecting soil moisture and plant health. These climatic shifts are not only reducing productivity but are also altering the chemical composition of coffee beans — impacting acidity, aroma, and flavour profiles that consumers expect.

While local adaptation measures and agricultural innovation are helping some farmers cope, the overall outlook remains concerning.

Shrinking Coffee-Growing Land

According to projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global coffee yields are expected to decline significantly by 2050. Nearly half of the land currently suitable for coffee cultivation could become unusable due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.

Coffee is primarily grown in the “Bean Belt,” the tropical region between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, where climatic conditions have historically been stable. Climate disruption is now destabilising this delicate ecological balance.

Prices Surge Across Global Markets

The impact of climate stress is already visible in international markets. Data compiled by the World Bank, based on International Coffee Organization indicator prices, shows a sharp rise in coffee bean prices between 2023 and 2025:

• Arabica coffee, mainly grown in Brazil, Colombia, and Ethiopia, rose from $4.54 per kg in 2023 to $8.47 per kg in 2025.
• Robusta coffee, largely produced in Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia, increased from $2.63 per kg to $4.86 per kg during the same period.

In February 2025, global coffee prices reached an all-time high.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), price shocks transmit gradually to consumers. In the European Union, a 1% rise in international coffee prices leads to a 0.24% increase in retail prices after about 19 months, with effects lasting several years. In the United States, a similar increase results in a 0.20% retail price rise after roughly 13 months.

Despite higher prices, demand remains relatively inelastic, meaning consumers are unlikely to significantly reduce coffee consumption — though drinking habits may evolve.

Rising Pressure on Producers

Producer prices have also climbed sharply across coffee-exporting nations in 2024 compared to 2023:

• Ethiopia: +17.8%
• Indonesia: +15.9%
• Brazil: +13.6%
• Kenya: +12.3%
• Colombia: +11.7%
• Vietnam: +5.8%

These increases reflect both supply constraints and growing climate risks faced by farmers.

Farmers Witness Change Firsthand

Planters in India’s Western Ghats are already observing dramatic shifts.

Sohan Shetty, who manages biodiversity-rich shaded organic coffee farms for Satyanarayana Plantations, said rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are reducing soil moisture and stressing plants.

“We are seeing increased temperatures and unpredictable rains. Coffee fruits are drying faster on plants, and irregular blossoming is forcing farmers to halt harvesting midway,” he noted.

Akshay Dashrath, Co-Founder and Grower at the South India Coffee Company, echoed similar concerns from Kodagu.

“Climate change isn’t something we’re predicting — it’s something we’re measuring every day,” he said, pointing to longer heat spells, warmer nights, and faster soil moisture loss recorded through on-ground sensors.

According to Dashrath, even when rainfall totals appear normal, changes in timing and intensity reduce water retention and nutrient efficiency in soil.

Adaptation Through Agroforestry

Smallholder farmers are increasingly shifting away from monoculture farming towards agroforestry, a system that integrates trees with coffee crops. This approach helps retain soil moisture, restore biodiversity, improve resilience against heat, and stabilise farm incomes.

However, experts stress that farmers require greater access to finance, training, and climate-adaptation support to scale such solutions.

A Cup of Coffee, A Climate Warning

Coffee — one of the world’s most traded agricultural commodities — is becoming a visible indicator of climate change’s economic impact. As environmental pressures intensify, the future availability, price, and even taste of coffee may depend on how quickly global emissions decline and adaptation measures expand.

For consumers, the rising cost of a daily cup may soon serve as a reminder of a warming planet reshaping agriculture at its roots.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy