Climate Change Intensifies Hurricane Melissa, Leaving Caribbean Islands Devastated

Climate change made Hurricane Melissa more intense and destructive, according to a new rapid analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA). The Category 5 storm tore through Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and Bermuda, destroying homes, infrastructure, and power lines, and leaving thousands stranded on rooftops. Scientists warn that continued fossil fuel emissions will push many nations “beyond the limits of adaptation.”

The WWA study, which used three independent analytical methods, focused on Jamaica and eastern Cuba — areas that faced the hurricane’s most violent winds and rainfall. The results were striking.

Key Findings:

• Hurricane Melissa crossed a region inhabited by nearly 6.4 million people across Jamaica and Cuba, exposing them to devastating winds and torrential rainfall.

• Climate change increased maximum wind speeds by 7% and extreme rainfall by 16%, as per the IRIS model.

• Historical data indicate that five-day maximum rainfall in Jamaica and Eastern Cuba is now 20–50% higher than in pre-industrial times.

• The temperature and humidity conditions fueling Melissa’s rapid intensification were six times more likely due to human-induced climate change.

• Despite accurate forecasts and widespread preparedness, the hurricane caused billions of dollars in damages, representing a major share of GDP for several Caribbean nations.

“Hurricane Melissa and other recent monster storms are becoming so intense that they will soon push millions beyond the limits of adaptation,” warned Friederike Otto, co-author of the study. “Unless we stop burning coal, oil, and gas, we will see more countries reaching these limits.”

The storm underwent “rapid intensification,” escalating from 110 km/h to 225 km/h in just 24 hours — a phenomenon increasingly linked to warming ocean waters. At least 61 people lost their lives, and thousands more were displaced.

Jayaka Campbell, Senior Lecturer at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, said: “Melissa’s catastrophic landfall is the canary in the coal mine. When a storm can explosively intensify over waters 1.5°C warmer than normal, we are witnessing the dangerous new reality of our warming world.”

Arnoldo Bezanilla, from Cuba’s Center for Atmospheric Physics, added: “Waves up to six meters and winds of 165 km/h devastated Cuba’s eastern provinces. Despite evacuating over 735,000 people, the losses to agriculture, housing, and infrastructure are immense. It will take years to recover from a storm intensified by fossil fuel-driven climate change.”

As the UNFCCC COP30 negotiations take place in Belém, Brazil, the hurricane serves as a grim reminder of what’s at stake.

“This is a critical moment for countries to act,” Bezanilla emphasized. “Climate finance must reach those most exposed, while nations commit to a real transition away from fossil fuels.”

Ben Clarke, of Imperial College London, stressed that the findings align with other recent studies: “Warmer oceans and atmospheres are fueling stronger hurricanes. Without urgent emissions cuts, storms like Melissa will become even more destructive.”

Roop Singh, from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, noted the compounding humanitarian toll: “Communities hit by previous hurricanes like Beryl and Oscar were still recovering. Repeated disasters erode resilience and deepen mental health burdens.”

Despite strong preparedness and risk financing — including Jamaica’s disaster plan triggering hundreds of millions in payouts — experts warn that adaptation alone will not suffice. Hurricane Melissa stands as a sobering testament to how human-induced climate change is rewriting the rules of the planet’s most powerful storms.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy