Global Carbon Emissions Rebound To Pre-Covid Levels Again

Global carbon emissions in 2021 are set to rebound close to pre-Covid levels. Should this year’s trends continue, a further rise in emissions levels in 2022 cannot be ruled out, especially if road transport and aviation sectors return to their pre-pandemic activity, say Global Carbon Project researchers.

Fossil carbon emissions dropped by 5.4% in 2020 amid Covid lockdowns, but the new report projects an increase of 4.9% this year (4.1% to 5.7%) to 36.4 billion tonnes in total. Coal and gas use are set to grow more in 2021 than they fell in 2020, but oil use remains below 2019 levels.

For major emitters, the 2021 emissions appear to return to pre-COVID trends of decreasing CO2 emissions for the United States and European Union and increasing CO2 emissions for India. For China, the response to the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked further growth in CO2 emissions, pushed by the power and industry sectors.

The research team – including the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA)CICERO and Stanford University – say a further rise in emissions in 2022 cannot be ruled out if road transport and aviation return to pre-pandemic levels and coal use is stable. The findings come as world leaders meet at COP26 in Glasgow to address the climate crisis and try to agree on a plan of action going forward. Should this year’s trends continue, a further rise in emissions levels in 2022 cannot be ruled out, especially if road transport and aviation sectors return to their pre-pandemic activity, say Global Carbon Project researchers.

In India, emissions are projected to rise 12.6% compared to 2020, reaching 4.4% above 2019 – a total of 2.7 billion tonnes CO2, 7% of global emissions.

● China: Emissions are projected to rise 4% compared to 2020, reaching 5.5% above 2019 – a total of 11.1 billion tonnes CO2, 31% of global emissions.

● USA: Emissions are projected to rise 7.6% compared to 2020, reaching 3.7% below 2019 – a total of 5.1 billion tonnes CO2, 14% of global emissions.

● EU27: Emissions are projected to rise 7.6% compared to 2020, reaching 4.2% below 2019 – a total of 2.8 billion tonnes CO2, 7% of global emissions.

To have a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2°C, the researchers estimate the remaining “carbon budget” has now shrunk to 420 billion tonnes, 770 billion tonnes and 1,270 billion tonnes respectively – equivalent to 11, 20 and 32 years from the beginning of 2022.

Reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 entails cutting global CO2 emissions by about1.4 billion tonnes each year on average according to The Global Carbon Budget 2021 edition is published

To have a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2°C, the researchers estimate the remaining ‘carbon budget’ has now shrunk to 420 billion tonnes, 770 billion tonnes and 1,270 billion tonnes respectively – equivalent to 11, 20 and 32 years at 2021 emissions levels.

Reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 entails cutting total CO2 emissions by 1.4 GtCO2 each year on average, comparable to the 1.9 GtCO2 emission pandemic-related drop during 2020.

Carbon emissions in 2021:

a) Fossil carbon emissions dropped by 5.4% in 2020 amid Covid lockdowns, but the new report projects an increase of 4.9% this year (4.1% to 5.7%) to 36.4 billion tonnes in total.

b) Emissions from coal use in 2021 are projected to be above their 2019 levels but still below their peak in 2014.

c) Emissions from natural gas use are also expected to rise above 2019 levels in 2021, continuing a steady trend of rising gas use that dates back at least sixty years.

d) Only CO2 emissions from oil remain well below 2019 levels in 2021.

e) In terms of the current big emitters, the global growth in fossil CO2 emissions mainly arises from the growth in coal use in the power and industry sectors in China, seemingly driven by the response to the pandemic.

The projection for 2021 follows long-term background trends of increasing CO2 emissions for India and decreasing CO2 emissions for the EU27 and the US, with the latter two historically responsible for the large bulk of cumulative emissions to date (the US remains the world’s biggest emitter by some way).

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, a known Environmentalist, Journalist and Communications Expert