Global Fossil CO2 Emissions Expected To Grow 1.1% In 2023

The Global Carbon Project released their 2023 carbon budget, an annual scientific assessment of the global carbon cycle, in COP28. The newest data shows that, without acceleration in global efforts to decarbonize the economy, CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to reach a historic high this year. The report is published in the journal Earth System Science Data, including a full-year projection for 2023.

According to the report-Global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1.1% in 2023 (with an uncertainty range of 0.0% to 2.1%). This is higher than the average growth rate of 0.5% per year over the last ten years. Moreover Global fossil CO2 emissions are now 6% higher than in 2015, the year the Paris Agreement was negotiated.

The world is not on track to meet its climate goals: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased on average 2.4 parts per million (ppm) per year in the last ten years and are projected to increase 2.4ppm in 2023 to reach 419.3 parts per million, 51% above its pre-industrial level.

“We continually see record growth in clean energy, but we have failed to put sufficient controls on the growth of fossil fuels and therefore CO2 emissions just keep rising,” said Glen Peters, a Senior Researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

Key messages of Report:

• 2023 is set for record-high carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) – a record and 1.4% above the 2019 pre-COVID-19 levels, and emissions are projected to rise in all fuel types (coal, oil, and gas).
• Total carbon emissions (including net emissions from land-use change) are projected to reach 40.9 GtCO2 in 2023 – about the same as 2022 levels and far from the steep cuts that are urgently needed to meet global climate targets;
• Fossil CO2 emissions are falling in some regions, including Europe and the USA, but still rising overall – and the 2023 edition confirms India has overtaken the EU in fossil CO2 emissions;
• The 2023 findings suggest atmospheric CO2 concentrations averaged 419.3 parts per million, 51% above pre-industrial levels;

• If current emissions levels persist, there is a 50% chance that warming of 1.5°C will be consistently exceeded in about seven years (see more on 1.5C messaging below).

• Emissions are projected to rise for coal (1.1%), oil (1.5%), and gas (0.5%), with coal emissions in particular driving the rise in India. Cement emissions are projected to increase 0.8%;
• Regional trends vary dramatically. Emissions in 2023 are projected to increase in India (8.2%) and China (4.0%), and decline in the EU (-7.4%), the USA (-3.0%) and the rest of the world (-0.4%). For China, growth in 2023 is explained in part by a delayed rebound post COVID-19 lockdown, and in India, high growth in demand for power is driving coal growth;

Indian fossil CO2 emissions are projected to increase 8.2% in 2023 [6.7% to 9.7%]. Earlier Ember has already stated in its report that India needs $101bn additional financing for the net-zero pathway.India’s 14th National Electricity Plan (NEP14) put the country on track to more than triple its renewable energy capacity by 2030. But to further scale it up to align with the net-zero scenario proposed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), India needs an additional financing of $101 billion.

For the first time in this year’s global carbon budget, the scientists separate the growth caused by international aviation and shipping. International aviation and shipping combined are projected to increase by 11.9% in 2023.

CO2 emissions from coal use are expected to grow 1.1% [0.1% to 2.4%] in 2023, reaching a record high and exceeding the temporary peak in 2014. The growth in coal is driven by China and India, with drops in coal use in the USA and EU.

CO2 emissions from oil use are expected to grow 1.5% [0.6% to 2.3%], primarily due to an increase in international aviation and ground transportation in China. CO2 emissions from oil use remain below their 2019 levels.

CO2 emissions from natural gas use have grown a sustained 2% per year over the last ten years but this growth has stopped since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Emissions from gas use are expected to grow a small 0.5% [-0.9% to 1.8%] in 2023. The increased growth in China is largely offset by the decline in the EU.

Large increases in fossil CO2 emissions in China, India, and international aviation: Fossil CO2 emissions in China are projected to grow 4.0% in 2023 [1.9% to 6.1%]. Growth in 2023 is partly caused by a delayed rebound from significant COVID-19 lockdowns in China in 2022.“China has seen continued strong growth in wind and solar power, without which emissions growth would have been much higher. But solar and wind couldn’t meet high electricity demand growth and low hydropower production due.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy