A new report has found nine states in India are among the world’s top 50 regions at risk of damage to the built environment from eight climate change hazards.
Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI), part of the Climate Risk Group has released a first pass analysis of ‘Gross Domestic Climate Risk’ (GDCR) calculating the physical climate risk to the built environment in over 2,600 territories around the world in 2050.
The XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk dataset compared these states according to modelled projections of damage to buildings and properties from extreme weather and climate change such as flooding, forest fires, heatwave and sea level rise. Asia dominates the list of provinces at risk with more than half (114) of the top 200 in 2050 in this region, with special focus on China and India.
According to the analysis, 80 percent of the top 50 most at-risk states and provinces in 2050 are in China, US and India. After China, India has the highest number of states (9) in the top 50, which include Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Punjab and Kerala.
This is the first time there has been a physical climate risk analysis focused exclusively on the built environment, comparing every state, province and territory in the world. Highly developed and globally significant Asian economic hubs in the top 100 for damage risk include Beijing, Jakarta, Hồ Chí Minh City, Taiwan and Mumbai.
World-first analysis compares every state and province around the globe (Monday, 20 February 2023): Economic hubs in provinces across Asia face the highest risk of damage from extreme weather and climate change, according to a new global ranking released today by XDI (The Cross Dependency Initiative) – a world-leading independent physical climate risk analysis company.
The XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk dataset compares over 2,600 states and provinces around the world according to modelled projections of damage to buildings and properties from extreme weather and climate change such as flooding, forest fires and sea level rise. In 2050, more than half of the top 200 provinces ranked by overall damage from extreme weather are in Asia, with Chinese provinces particularly at risk.
“The findings from the XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking underscore the importance of climate resilient investment frameworks for Asia and pricing physical climate risk into supply chains. “In terms of overall scale of damage risk, and in terms of risk escalation, Asia has the most to lose as climate change extreme weather increases, and the most to gain from preventing worsening climate change and accelerating climate resilient investment,” said XDI CEO Rohan Hamden.
This is the first time there has been a physical climate risk analysis focused exclusively on the built
environment, comparing every state, province and territory in the world. It is particularly significant for investors, as extensive built infrastructure generally overlaps with high levels of economic activity and capital value.
The XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk comparison of physical climate risk for 2050 found:
● Globally, the Chinese provinces Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong and Henan have the highest results for damage risk of any of the provinces and territories in this analysis. This is because these provinces are large, host extensive industrial, trade, residential and commercial development and are exposed to coastal sea level rise and riverine and surface flooding.
● Over half of the top 50 most at-risk states and provinces in 2050 are in China, predominantly in the globally-connected provinces of the east and south, along the floodplains and deltas of the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers.
● Highly developed and globally significant Asian economic hubs in the top 100 for damage risk include Beijing, Jakarta, Hồ Chí Minh City, Taiwan and Mumbai.
● South East Asia experiences the greatest escalation in damage from 1990 to 2050 anywhere in the world.
“We’re releasing this analysis in response to demand from investors for data on sub-sovereign and regional risk. The findings from the XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking underscore the importance of pricing physical climate risk in financial markets, including bond markets, given the amount of capital investment represented by the assets at risk in the provinces identified, the vulnerability of global supply chains, and the need for climate resilience to inform investment,” said Mr Hamden.
“It is crucial for companies, governments and investors to understand the financial and economic implications of physical climate risk and weigh this risk in their decision-making before these costs escalate beyond financial tipping points.”
About the Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking
“This is the most sophisticated global analysis of physical climate risk to date, offering a breadth and depth and granularity on a scale we haven’t seen before. Now – for the first time – the finance industry can directly compare Mumbai, New York and Berlin using a like-for-like methodology,” said Mr Hamden.
The XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking reflects physical risk to the built environment from eight climate change extreme weather hazards: riverine and surface flooding, coastal inundation, extreme heat, forest fire, soil movement (drought-related), extreme wind and freeze thaw.
The ranking is based on a data pool representing the built environment of the terrestrial world, with an asset level, bottom-up analysis using over 320 million data points. Global climate models, combined with local weather and environmental data and engineering archetypes calculate the likely damage to and failure of features of the built environment from hazards over time under the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP).
The territories presented in the XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk dataset are the first sub-national
administrative jurisdiction for most countries. The territories presented in the XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk dataset are the first sub-national administrative jurisdiction for most countries.
The team behind XDI (The Cross Dependency Initiative) was established in 2006, making the group the world’s longest standing independent specialist in physical climate risk and adaptation analytics. XDI works with large national banks and companies in the UK, Asia, Europe and North America and is a leader in providing data for climate stress tests by financial regulators.
The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, a known Environmentalist, Journalist and Communications Expert