Major Emitters Of Green House Gases, Like China And EU Are Missing Climate Action
Increased Emission Reduction targets could boost global GDP by 0.2% by 2040 and up to 13% by 2100
The The UNFCCC Bonn Conference will take place next week from June 16-26. It is taking place after the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted that Global temperatures are expected to keep rising at or near record levels in the next five years. Which means an increase of climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development.
Transitioning AwayFromFossilFuels- At COP28 all governments committed to tripling clean energy and transitioning away from fossil fuels. Only 22 countries have submitted updated climate plans so far (Nationally Determined Contributions – NDCs) , which outline how each country is going to reduce its Greenhouse Gas Emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. They also need to provide financial support for these efforts. Major emitters like China and the EU are still missing in action. Unless EU leaders submit an updated plan, the EU risks surrendering its mantle as a climate leader—despite drawing $334 billion in net-zero investment last year. India updated its NDC commitment to 500GW of non-fossil based energy sources by 2030, out of which it has already installed more than 200 GW. Stronger NDCs aren’t just about climate—they’re an economic opportunity. A new OECD report says enhanced Emission Reduction targets could boost global GDP by 0.2% by 2040 and up to 13% by 2100, while aligning transitions with development could lift 175 million people out of poverty. But delays and uncertainty could cut GDP by 0.75% as soon as 2030. Some governments are finally detailing how sectors like energy and transport will cut emissions. But the next wave of NDCs will show whether countries are serious about keeping 1.5°C within reach.
Brazil’s priorities for Belem -Ahead of the mid-year talks the COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago has been setting out Brazil’s priorities for Belem in a series of letters highlighting its intention to move forward on topics including the transitioning away from fossil fuels, investing in adaptation, and agreeing on a framework for just transition. Brazil’s main three goals for COP30 appear to be based on (i) a global deal to finance forest protection (ii) ensuring more finance flows to developing countries under the Baku to Belem Roadmap and (iii) taking on the COP28 agreement to phase out fossil fuels and ensuring this is implemented. The ‘Forests, Finance, Fossils’ targets have been alluded to in the three letters from the COP30 president so far., but Bonn is the time when there is a need for definite plans.
Loss and Damage- Bonn negotiations are happening at a time, when the cost of Climate impacts is going to escalate very fast. Extreme Event Impact Attribution methods project the damages from floods and storms to the year 2050. According to the latest research published in Springer Nature – “Calculating loss and damage from extreme weather events in Small Island Developing States”. In a 2 °C warming scenario by 2050,Annual economic losses of US$1.7 billion can also be attributed to climate change for SIDS. Under current warming scenarios impacts are likely to cost small island states around $56 billion by 2050.
Simultaneously the clean energy transition is accelerating with around $2.2 trillion going collectively to renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency and electrification – twice as much as the $1.1 trillion going to oil, natural gas and coal according to the IEA. While Several negotiators from African countries stand to miss Bonn this year due to lack of funding to travel to Germany signifying the growing challenge of plummeting financial resources in the development sector.
WMO warns of a 87% chance that 1.5c would be breached between now and 2029 as well as insurers calculating- $320bn worth of losses in 2024 alone. Natural catastrophes caused US$ 320bn in worldwide losses last year, of which about US$ 140bn were insured. Only 22 countries have submitted updated national climate plans (aka NDCs) due this year with only one (the UK) rated in line with the 1.5C temperature goal set in the Paris Agreement. Among major polluters, China and the EU are yet to land their 2035 targets.
Tracking adaptation progress- Adaptation will be a key theme at Bonn as negotiators take stock of the work done on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)—the Paris Agreement commitment to drive global progress on climate adaptation. This will include a review of the recently-released 490 indicators aimed at tracking progress on the goal, and agreement on a process for narrowing them down to the 100 target after Bonn.
Catherine Abreu, Director, International Climate Politics Hub (ICPH) said: “We are still waiting for the big emitters – the EU, China and India to submit national climate plans. The EU needs to deliver fast – we know several countries are waiting to gauge its level of ambition before they submit their own NDCs. China has been stepping into a leadership role on climate action multilaterally, but their domestic actions have major implications for meeting the Paris goal to limit temperatures rises to 1.5°C limit. In India’s case we see financing is a key issue. The choices by these countries will shape the trajectory of global climate action.”
The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy
