Missed Monitoring of Himalayan Threats Amid Climate Change

A suspected cloudburst in Dharali village, Uttarkashi, on August 5 unleashed devastating flash floods — yet another grim reminder of India’s continued failure to monitor and mitigate growing climate threats in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. As the Southwest Monsoon 2025 advances, scientists warn that warming temperatures and increased humidity are significantly contributing to the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across Himalayan states.

Climate Change Intensifying Himalayan Weather Events

There is now little doubt among scientists that climate change is triggering a surge in extreme weather. Rising temperatures and abnormal humidity are altering monsoon patterns, causing erratic and often destructive rainfall events.

The Western Himalayan states, located at the northern edge of the Indian monsoon belt, are particularly vulnerable. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have already witnessed several catastrophic floods in recent years, with climate change acting as a force multiplier.

Recent studies also point to larger atmospheric changes beyond India’s borders. One such study highlights that increased land heating in the Middle East during spring has contributed to 46% of the intensified rainfall over Northwest India and Pakistan between 1979 and 2022. This is shifting the transition zone between South Asia’s monsoon and West Asia’s desert climate northwestward, further elevating flood risks for Pakistan and northwestern India.

“The rapid warming over the Middle East and the Mediterranean is a signature of global warming,” said Dr. Raghu Murtugudde, Emeritus Professor at the University of Maryland and retired IIT-Mumbai faculty.

“This regional heating pulls southwestern winds northward over the Arabian Sea, injecting excess moisture into the Himalayan foothills. We’re likely to see more heavy rainfall in Himachal Pradesh and even Leh-Ladakh before the season ends.”

Changing Monsoon Axis and Abnormal Ocean Warming

According to Mahesh Palawat, Vice President – Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, abnormal ocean warming has increased atmospheric moisture, leading to more frequent cloudbursts.

“With the monsoon trough now aligned along the Himalayan foothills, red alerts were already in place for Uttarakhand. The current flood event is a consequence of climate change-induced warming. Warm oceans pump more moisture into the air, creating ideal conditions for towering Cumulonimbus clouds – sometimes reaching heights of 50,000 feet. These clouds act like vertical columns of water, and when obstructed by mountainous terrain, they release heavy rainfall over a concentrated area — often resulting in cloudburst-like devastation.”

Glacier Melt and Landslides: A Dual Threat

The accelerated glacier melt in the Himalayas due to rising temperatures is filling glacial lakes rapidly, heightening the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Thinning glaciers are also destabilizing slopes, making deep-seated landslides more likely.

A study recorded 127 major glacier-related landslides between 1999 and 2018 across the Karakoram, Pamirs, Western Himalayas, and Hindu Kush.

The IPCC’s Special Report on the Cryosphere has flagged that climate change is altering snowfall and rainfall patterns, compromising the stability of mountain slopes and existing infrastructure in the region. Permafrost thaw and glacier retreat are weakening both natural and built environments in these high-altitude zones.

Urgent Need for Climate Adaptation and Monitoring

Extreme rainfall events in high-elevation regions are now amplified by 15% for every 1°C of warming — double the rate predicted by traditional atmospheric models.

There is a pressing need for:

• Robust early warning systems

• Floodplain zoning

• Mapping of high-risk zones

• Comprehensive community evacuation plans

• Investment in climate-resilient infrastructure

• Unregulated Development Increases Risks

Despite repeated warnings, unplanned infrastructure projects — roads, tunnels, hydroelectric plants, and unregulated tourism — continue to mushroom across ecologically sensitive areas. The disasters of Kedarnath (2013) and Rishiganga (2021) should have prompted stricter monitoring and regulation, but unchecked development persists, further endangering vulnerable communities.

Glacier Retreat Data (2023–2025):

A study of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region indicates average glacier retreat at 14.9 ± 15.1 meters per year, with basin-specific trends:

• Indus basin: 12.7 ± 13.2 m/year

• Ganga basin: 15.5 ± 14.4 m/year

• Brahmaputra basin: 20.2 ± 19.7 m/year

In contrast, Karakoram glaciers show relatively stable behavior, though this anomaly may not last. Garhwal Himalaya glaciers display varying melt rates, influenced by topography, climate patterns, and debris cover.

The Dharali tragedy is not an isolated event — it is a symptom of a larger crisis. As climate change continues to reshape the Himalayan ecosystem, India must prioritize scientific monitoring, climate adaptation, and sustainable development in its mountain states. Ignoring these warning signs will only amplify the human and ecological toll in the years to come.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy