Texas’ Growing Vulnerability To Extreme Weather Fuelled By Climate Change
Catastrophic flooding has devastated a region that is no stranger to these types of events
Torrential rains triggered catastrophic flash floods across Texas on 4th July submerging roads, sweeping away vehicles, and forcing dramatic rescues. Authorities raced to find victims of flash flooding in central Texas, including 27 people from Camp Mystic, a girls’ summer camp in Kerr County which was located near the Guadalupe River. The river rose more than 22 feet in hours overnight on Friday 4th July.
The disaster underscores Texas’ growing vulnerability to extreme weather fuelled by climate change. Catastrophic flooding has devastated a region that is no stranger to these types of events.
The threat of heavy overnight rain in the western Hill Country was well anticipated by the National Weather Service, even though pinpointing exactly where such intense localized storms will form hours in advance can be difficult to impossible.
Extreme weather events like the tragic flood in Texas are becoming more frequent due to climate change, experts say. At the same time, the federal government is cutting programs at the National Weather Service.
There have been increasing signs of extreme weather across the world, from more intense droughts to stronger and more intense rainstorms. These impacts have been felt profoundly with more destructive fires, intense water shortages and flooding in California as well as in many other parts of the world.
Meteorologist James Spann posted on his Facebook page- The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio issued a Flash Flood Warning at 1:14 am CDT for Bandera and Kerr Counties, respectively. They made statements like, “Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses.”
Role of climate change: According to Climate Central-
- Low-level moisture fueling this system came from a warmer-than-average Gulf of Mexico.
- Sea surface temps are 1°–2°F above average for early July—made 10x to 30x more likely by climate change.
- Warmer oceans mean more evaporation which means rainier, more intense storms.
Prof Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical & Climate Hazards, UCL, said on social media: “The tragic events in Texas are exactly what we would expect in our hotter, climate-changed, world. There has been an explosion in extreme weather in recent years, including more devastating flash floods caused by slow-moving, wetter, storms, that dump exceptional amounts of rain over small areas across a short time.
Dr Daniel Swain, Climate Scientist at UCLA said on social media: “This kind of record-shattering rain (caused by slow-moving torrential thunderstorms) event is precisely that which is increasing the fastest in a warming climate. So it’s not a question of whether climate change played a role–it’s only a question of how much”
It is not possible for weather forecasts to pinpoint exactly where and when such high intensity and localized heavily rainfall will occur. This is one of the reasons why it’s quite concerning that most extreme convective rain events appear to be intensifying in a quickly in a warming climate (at a rate of ~14%/C (or more), it is inherently difficult to predict fine-scale details of such events in advance, & they can be devastating.
Moreover -Melting polar ice caps contribute to increased atmospheric moisture through evaporation. As sea ice melts and ice sheets retreat, more open water surfaces are exposed, leading to increased evaporation into a warming earth atmosphere.
The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy
