Net Zero Targets In Asia’s Four Largest Economies

Net zero targets in Asia’s four largest economies could substantially expand the market for green hydrogen (H2) electrolyzers, with the combined potential in these countries projected to reach $180 billion by 2050 for key industrial applications, according to a new report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero convened by the Asia Society Policy Institute.

The Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia’s Industrial Giants report, showcases the need to transform the hard-to-abate sectors of the economy, including steel and fertilizers. As India has set its sights on becoming energy-independent by 2047 and achieving Net Zero by 2070, we recognize the critical role of Green Hydrogen. India, with its vast renewable energy resources, also has the opportunity to produce Green Hydrogen for the world.

The report assesses the future potential and trajectory for electrolyzers needed to meet green H2 demand in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The study, carried out by Global Efficiency Intelligence, looks at the role of green H2 in three priority industries—steel, ammonia, and methanol—under various decarbonization scenarios. In these sectors, green H2 can significantly reduce emissions by replacing carbon-intensive processes with renewable energy-powered electrolysis.

 China: $85 billion by 2050, up from $22 billion in 2030
 India: $78 billion by 2050, up from $4 billion in 2030
 Japan: $9 billion by 2050, up from $1 billion in 2030
 South Korea: $8 billion by 2050, up from $1 billion in 2030

The report offers a suite of policy recommendations aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of green H2 and electrolyzer manufacturing. Over a year into the country’s National Green Hydrogen Mission, these are particularly relevant for India to create a robust ecosystem for green H2 production and use toward a net zero industry.

The study, which was carried out by Global Efficiency Intelligence, looks at the role of green H2 in three priority industries—steel, ammonia, and methanol—under various decarbonization scenarios. In these sectors, green H 2 has the capacity to significantly reduce emissions by replacing carbon-intensive processes with renewable energy-powered electrolysis.

Should the four countries adhere to their declared net zero targets, the analysis projects massive growth in the market potential of green H 2 electrolyzers for the three industries by 2050:

The collective market potential for electrolyzers is thus expected to skyrocket to $180 billion by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate as high as 12% between 2030 and 2040. This is nearly five times as large as the market potential under a business-as-usual scenario. The total electrolyzer market opportunity will be even greater since it includes applications for other industries. The study also breaks down the electrolyzer market potential for each of the three industries and four countries analyzed.

The report offers a suite of policy recommendations aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of green H 2 and electrolyzer manufacturing. These targeted strategies for policymakers, Industry players, investors, and think tanks aim to collectively support a robust ecosystem for green H 2 production and use in these countries toward a net zero industry.

Ali Hasanbeigi, Founder, CEO, and Research Director at Global Efficiency Intelligence, said, Using green H 2 in H 2 -DRI steelmaking( Iron ore is reduced with hydrogen while in a solid state, hence the name direct reduction, to produce direct reduced iron (DRI) called sponge iron), and producing green ammonia and methanol is essential to decarbonize these key sectors. Our analysis shows there is a massive electrolyzer market potential in these major Asian countries and those who capitalize on it stand to gain substantially.

Kate Logan, Associate Director of Climate at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted, “These findings underscore how ambitious net zero targets can shape demand for a new and critical technology, such as electrolyzers, that will be essential to decarbonizing the region and the world. Asia’s industrial giants could therefore see net zero pathways as vehicles for driving development, rather than limiting it.”

Charith Konda, Energy Specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, added, “Analysis of the three applications reveals that India’s green hydrogen electrolyzer market is poised for significant growth, with a projected CAGR of 16% — escalating from US$4 billion in 2030 to US$78 billion by 2050. This robust outlook sends a positive signal to investors and policymakers, underscoring the strategic role of green hydrogen in meeting net
zero objectives.”

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy