Asia Will Become Exposed To Extreme Rainfall And Floods By End Of The Decade
Of the 25 countries that have the highest risk of extreme rainfalls by the end of the century, 10 are in Asia
According to climate scientists, who analysed 146 past and current generations of climate models in joint research, Asia will become significantly exposed to extreme rainfalls and flood risk by the decade’s end. While between 3-5 billion people globally will be affected by 2100, no continent will face such substantial rainfall changes as Asia. These findings align with the conclusions of another study by the World Bank. It warns that while flood risk is a global threat, 70% of the most flood-exposed people (1.24 billion) live in South and East Asia.
Of the 25 countries that have the highest risk of extreme rainfalls by the end of the century, 10 are in Asia. Over 70% of the examined models show that highly-populated areas, home to over 2.7 billion people in China and India, will experience increased rainfall. The rest of the affected Asian countries include Bangladesh, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Drying and Wetting Patterns Under Intermediate and Very High Emissions Scenarios, Source: Trancoso, R., Syktus, J., Allan, R. P., Croke, J., & Chadwick, R. (2024). Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two–thirds of the world’s population
Most of the people across Asia don’t need further convincing when it comes to the changing climate. People in the region have been experiencing it first-hand for years. Studies find that, since the late 1970s, typhoons in the East and Southeast Asia parts have doubled in their destructive power, while the number of Category 4 and 5 storms have doubled or tripled.
Tropical cyclones account for one third of both deaths and economic losses from weather-, climate- and water- related disasters in the last 50 years. On average, there are about 84 tropical cyclones globally every year, of which around one-third occur in the Western North Pacific region.
Climate change is increasing the impact of tropical cyclones, he said. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report said it that it is very likely that the most intense phase of typhoons in the Western Pacific has shifted northwards. It is likely that the global proportion of major tropical cyclones has increased, with associated risks of stronger winds, heavier rainfall, higher waves and storm surges and coastal flooding.
A Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center (AP-TCRC) has been launched in the Chinese coastal city of Shanghai, for regional coordination and cooperation in support of disaster risk reduction by WMO. .It will promote greater research and investigation into a major natural hazard, which every year causes massive loss of life and socio-economic upheaval.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Assistant Secretary-General Dr. Wenjian Zhang, people can expect stronger winds, heavier rainfall, higher waves, storm surges and coastal flooding as a result of the increasingly intense tropical cyclones.
In two years, extreme floods due to heavy monsoonal changes have also been tormenting countries all across Asia, taking lives, destroying livelihoods and impacting economies.
A common denominator during these instances over the past two years is the role of flash floods – a situation occurring when particular hotspots experience a substantial amount of rainfall in just a few days or hours. South Asia’s erratic monsoons were once considered a festive time, but changing climate patterns are making them one of the most dreaded weather events of the year. Climate change is shifting its patterns, making dry years drier and wet years wetter.
After studying the modelled projections of damage to the built environment from extreme weather and climate change impacts for over 2,600 locations worldwide, the Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI) ranked Asia as the region with the highest risk.
In its 2023 Gross Domestic Climate Risk Dataset, the expert group in physical climate risk concluded that 114 of the top 200 provinces with the highest aggregated damage ratio by 2050 will be in Asia. The biggest risk is identified in East and Southeast Asia, with 29 of the top 200 provinces in China, another 20 in Japan and four in South Korea. Southeast Asia, notably Vietnam and Indonesia, holds 36 of the top 200 places in the ranking.
The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy
