Climate change drove deadly wildfires in Türkiye, Greece and Cyprus 22% more intense
This year, nearly 650 firefighters from 14 countries were pre-deployed in high-risk areas in anticipation of severe fires
Climate change caused intense heat that drove deadly wildfires in Türkiye, Greece and Cyprus 22% more intense Researchers expect similar results for blazes in Spain and warn of more dangerous fires if climate change is not stopped. Due to climate change the Total winter rainfall in the region has decreased by about 14%, which led to a drier summer this year. The study by World Weather Attribution follows data confirming 2025 has become Europe’s worst recorded year of wildfires with more than one million hectares burned. The researchers warn the risk of larger and harder-to-control fires will continue to increase if countries keep burning fossil fuels.
Key findings include:
● Climate change set the scene for the fires by influencing the weather in the months, weeks and days leading up to them.
● Total winter rainfall in the region has decreased by about 14%, which leads to drier summer conditions.
● The intense dry heat that primed plants to burn ahead of the fires was about 18% more intense because of climate change.
● A combination of hot, dry and windy conditions that drove the spread of fires was about 22% more intense due to climate change.
Simultaneous wildfires across Europe are stretching firefighting resources and more intense events are already outpacing efforts to adapt. Theodore Keeping, Researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy Imperial College London, said: “Yet again, unrelenting heat has caused tinder-dry conditions in Europe. Our study finds an extremely strong climate change signal towards hotter and drier conditions.
“These results are concerning. Today, with 1.3°C of warming, we are seeing new extremes in wildfire behaviour that has pushed firefighters to their limit. But we are heading for up to 3°C this century unless countries more rapidly transition away from fossil fuels.” Hundreds of wildfires broke out in the eastern Mediterranean in June and July. The blazes were driven by back-to-back days above 40°C, bone-dry vegetation and winds that reached gale-force levels. Türkiye was the hardest hit, with 17 people killed. Among them were ten firefighters, who died when the winds suddenly changed direction and flames trapped them. Two people were killed in Cyprus and one in Greece. More than 80,000 people have been forced to evacuate across the countries.
The study examined weather conditions in the months and days leading up to the worst blazes this year and during them. Observations of winter rainfall were first analysed, which plays a key role in determining how flammable the landscape becomes in summer. It has dropped by about 14% since the preindustrial era, before humans began burning fossil fuels, the study found. They then analysed how intense, dry heat primed plants to burn just before the outbreaks of fires. To do this, the scientists analysed a metric that reflects how ‘thirsty’ the air is. They found that a week of the highly-evaporative conditions is now about 13 times more likely and 18% more intense because of climate change.
Next, the scientists analysed the combined hot, dry and windy conditions over three days that fuelled the chaotic spread of fires. Without climate change, similar events would only occur about once every 100 years. But today, with 1.3°C of warming, they are expected about once every 20 years. Overall, the fire-prone conditions were made about 10 times more likely and 22% more intense by climate change. Lastly, the weather patterns that brought the extreme northerly winds, known as the Etesian winds, were analysed. The analysis found an increase in the intensity of the high-pressure systems like the one that drove the devastating fires.
This result indicates a strengthening of fire-fanning Etesian winds, which agrees with published studies from the region. Türkiye, Greece and Cyprus face an increasing risk of more intense and harder-to-control wildfires unless the world speeds up the transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy. If warming reaches 2.6°C, which is expected this century under current policies, similar periods of intense hot, dry and windy conditions will become another 9 times more likely and 25% more intense. The study highlights a need for future-looking strategies that decrease the risk of wildfires starting and spreading. The current approach across the three countries emphasises suppression, with large firefighting forces and fleets of water-bombing planes and helicopters.
This year, nearly 650 firefighters from 14 countries were pre-deployed in high-risk areas in anticipation of severe fires. Such international deployments will continue to be needed, but greater focus needs to be placed on preventing fires, such as strengthening fuel management strategies and improving community fire risk awareness and prevention, the researchers say. Hundreds of wildfires occurring at the same time across Europe highlights how firefighting resources are already strained today, at 1.3°C of warming, the researchers say.
As of August 21, the EU Civil Protection Mechanism – which coordinates support during emergencies – had been activated 17 times for wildfires this year, including by Greece, Spain, Bulgaria, Montenegro and Albania over one week. As the climate warms, more countries across Europe will need to tackle wildfires that continue to stretch resources, and researchers warn that there is a risk that extreme fires could overwhelm efforts to adapt in some places. The study is the first rapid attribution analysis on a wildfire in Europe and was conducted by 28 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution group, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in Türkiye, Greece, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy
