Climate Change Shifts Childhood Malaria Risk Across Africa, New Study Finds
Nature study warns malaria burden is moving from traditional hotspots to cooler regions in East and Southern Africa as global temperatures rise
Climate change is reshaping the geography of malaria across Africa, increasing the risk for millions of children in regions that have historically experienced lower transmission while gradually reducing the disease in some of today’s hottest malaria hotspots, according to a new study published in the journal Nature.
The research, described as the most comprehensive assessment of climate change’s impact on malaria in sub-Saharan Africa to date, concludes that while climate change has caused a slight overall increase in childhood malaria, its effects are far from uniform. Rising temperatures are shifting the disease into cooler, high-altitude regions where communities and health systems are often less prepared to combat it.
Malaria remains the world’s deadliest climate-sensitive infectious disease, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives every year, most of them children under the age of five in sub-Saharan Africa.
Climate Change Is Moving Malaria Rather Than Simply Increasing It
Researchers found that climate change is not universally making malaria worse. Instead, it is altering where the disease thrives.
“Climate change isn’t just making malaria worse or better—it’s moving it,” said Tamma Carleton, Faculty Head of Research at the Climate Impact Lab and Assistant Professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
According to the study, whether climate change increases or decreases malaria depends largely on existing local temperatures. Regions that are already extremely hot are becoming too warm even for malaria-carrying mosquitoes to survive efficiently, while cooler regions are becoming increasingly suitable for mosquito breeding and parasite transmission.
Current Hotspots May See Falling Malaria Cases
The research suggests that several of Africa’s warmest malaria-endemic regions could witness modest declines in malaria transmission as temperatures continue to rise.
Countries including Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali may experience around a 5% reduction in malaria cases because conditions become less favourable for mosquitoes.
In some of the hottest Sahel countries—including Niger, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Somalia—the disease could potentially be eliminated altogether if temperatures exceed the limits required for mosquito survival.
However, researchers caution that such extreme heat would create numerous other public health challenges, including heat stress, food insecurity and reduced agricultural productivity.
East and Southern Africa Face Growing Threat
While traditional hotspots may benefit from declining malaria transmission, cooler regions across East and Southern Africa face a significantly different future.
The study projects approximately a 5% increase in malaria cases across parts of the Ethiopian Highlands, Kenya and Burundi. Similar increases are expected in Angola, Zambia and northeastern South Africa.
By the end of the century, malaria risk could rise by as much as 20% in vulnerable regions such as the Rift Valley and coastal Southern Africa, exposing populations with limited historical experience of malaria prevention and treatment.
Emission Cuts Could Prevent Thousands of Cases
The researchers emphasize that limiting global warming could substantially reduce future malaria burdens.
Meeting the international target of limiting warming to 2°C could prevent approximately five additional malaria cases per 1,000 children in Southern Africa, with even greater benefits expected in the East African Highlands.
Climate mitigation, they argue, must be complemented by stronger adaptation strategies, particularly in regions where healthcare systems have limited experience managing malaria outbreaks.
Adaptation Will Be Critical
Christopher Trisos, Director of the Climate Risk Lab and Principal Research Officer at the African Climate and Development Initiative at the University of Cape Town, stressed that governments must prepare for changing disease patterns.
He noted that stronger surveillance systems, expanded malaria control programmes, improved healthcare infrastructure and inclusive economic development will all be essential to address rising malaria risks in newly vulnerable regions.
The study identifies East and Southern Africa as priority areas for future adaptation investments, providing policymakers with valuable guidance for directing public health resources.
Malaria Elimination Still Within Reach
Despite climate-related challenges, the researchers remain optimistic that malaria elimination remains achievable.
Colin Carlson, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at Yale University, noted that malaria elimination efforts have already offset climate change impacts by nearly 200-fold.
The researchers argue that continued investments in disease surveillance, mosquito control, improved healthcare access and climate adaptation can protect vulnerable populations while supporting long-term malaria eradication goals.
The study forms part of the Climate Impact Lab’s broader Adaptation Roadmap initiative, which aims to help governments identify climate risks and prioritize effective adaptation strategies across sectors.
The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy
