European Heatwave and Drought Wipe Out 16.7 Million Tonnes of Grain, Cost Farmers €3.2 Billion

Europe’s farmers are facing mounting losses after a summer of extreme heat and drought slashed the continent’s projected grain harvest by 16.7 million tonnes, with the damage estimated to cost €3.2 billion, according to a new analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

The analysis, based on September forecasts from COCERAL, the industry body representing the cereals, oilseeds, rice and olive oil sectors, found that the reduction in projected production between June and September was almost double the 8.9 million tonnes cut anticipated in July following an early-summer heatwave.

The latest estimate puts the combined European Union and UK grain harvest at 278.9 million tonnes, 9.3% below the 2025 output and the smallest harvest in at least a decade. The projected crop is also smaller than the harvests recorded during the major drought years of 2018 and 2022.

The findings underline the growing pressure on European agriculture from extreme weather, rising input costs and geopolitical instability.

France Suffers the Biggest Losses

France has been the worst-affected country in terms of the value of lost grain production, with an estimated shortfall of 5.8 million tonnes, valued at €1.47 billion.

Hungary follows with losses of 3.1 million tonnes, worth €723 million, while the UK has lost an estimated 3 million tonnes valued at €527 million. Germany’s projected output has fallen by 2.5 million tonnes, representing €398 million in lost production, while Spain has recorded a reduction of 1.2 million tonnes, valued at €220 million.

The analysis estimates that losses would rise to €4.1 billion if upward revisions in production forecasts for Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Sweden were excluded. This alternative calculation, ECIU says, more closely reflects the damage experienced by farmers in western and central Europe.

Heat and Drought Damage Wheat and Maize

The extreme summer conditions affected crops at critical stages of development. Heat damaged grain filling in wheat, while high temperatures disrupted maize pollination. Drought also reduced the area planted with maize.

Although wheat in northern France survived the May and June heatwaves in relatively adequate condition, crops in Germany and Poland were more severely affected and ultimately fell short of earlier expectations.

Barley production is forecast at 57.9 million tonnes, marginally higher than the previous estimate of 57.6 million tonnes but substantially below the 63.3 million tonnes harvested last year.

The impact extends beyond cereals. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has estimated that soybean yields fell by 15%, potato yields by 7% and sugar beet yields by 11%. Reduced grass growth has also affected livestock farming.

Some crops have suffered such extensive damage that harvesting is no longer economically viable, resulting in abandoned fields and further losses for agricultural producers.

Climate Change Adds to Farmers’ Cost Burden

The weather-related losses have coincided with higher production costs driven by geopolitical tensions and volatile energy markets.

According to the analysis, European diesel and fertiliser prices rose following the Iran war and have remained elevated. Higher fossil fuel prices have added to the financial pressure on farmers already struggling with reduced yields and market prices that may not cover production costs.

Scientists at World Weather Attribution have found that the June heatwave would have been virtually impossible without climate change in the climate conditions of 50 years ago.

The summer was the hottest on record for western Europe, with large parts of southern and central Europe also experiencing extreme temperatures. In the UK, July was the driest on record in England and Wales, compounding the effects of the heatwaves in May and June.

ECIU Warns of Growing Food Security Risks

Tom Lancaster, farming analyst at ECIU, said the summer’s extreme heat and drought had caused unprecedented damage, with the lost production equivalent to the combined grain output of Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands.

At a time of geopolitical uncertainty, he said, climate change was reducing Europe’s productive capacity and weakening food security.

Lancaster also highlighted the implications of Europe’s rapid warming, arguing that faster reductions in greenhouse gas emissions were necessary to limit future climate damage.

He added that governments and businesses should invest in soil health and regenerative farming practices to strengthen agricultural resilience against increasingly severe weather conditions.

Farmers Face Repeated Climate and Market Shocks

The experience of French cereal farmer Sébastien Neveux illustrates the scale of the disruption. Farming 300 hectares in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region, Neveux said all his crops had been affected.

Winter crops recorded yield losses of around 25%, while sunflower production fell to 0.7 tonnes per hectare, compared with a usual yield of 1.5 to 2 tonnes — a decline of approximately 60%.

Neveux said heatwaves beginning as early as May had made it increasingly difficult to protect crops. He also pointed to the combined effects of climate-related damage, rising production costs and market prices that were too low to cover expenses.

The losses demonstrate how successive shocks can compound one another: extreme weather reduces harvest volumes, while expensive fuel and fertilisers increase the cost of producing what remains.

A Wider Warning for Global Agriculture

Europe’s shrinking grain forecast highlights the vulnerability of food production to prolonged heat and drought, particularly when agricultural markets are already under pressure from geopolitical disruptions.

The immediate impact is visible in reduced harvests and financial losses for farmers. The broader implications include greater uncertainty over agricultural supply, farm profitability and the ability of food systems to withstand further climate extremes.

The ECIU analysis points to two parallel challenges: reducing the emissions driving long-term climate change and improving the resilience of farms to the impacts already being experienced.

For European agriculture, the €3.2 billion estimate is not merely an accounting of one summer’s losses. It is an indication of the economic exposure created when extreme weather strikes major food-producing regions amid already elevated input costs and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy