Extreme Weather Events Drive Food & Vegetable Inflation in India

India, the world’s second-largest producer of fruits and vegetables, is increasingly witnessing how climate volatility fuels inflation. With most vegetable supply coming from small and marginal farmers—who have minimal protection against climate shocks—erratic weather has become a direct driver of price spikes in essential kitchen staples.

Farmers typically plan crop cycles based on normal weather and prevailing market trends. But sudden deviations—such as unseasonal rains, heatwaves, or cyclones—damage crops, disrupt supply chains, and create short-to-medium-term shortages. This disruption pushes up prices, particularly for short-duration and perishable crops like tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP), which are highly sensitive to weather extremes.

Climate Shocks and Price Volatility

Research by the Reserve Bank of India highlights that rainfall changes raise vegetable inflation by about 1.24 percentage points, while temperature variations push it up by 1.30 percentage points. Climate Trends has also documented how repeated crop losses from extreme weather have consistently driven food inflation in the last five years.

With 65% of India’s farmland unirrigated and agriculture relying on the southwest monsoon for over 75% of annual rainfall, the sector remains highly exposed to climate shocks such as erratic rains, cyclones, hailstorms, and rising temperatures.

Recent Climate Impacts and Inflationary Pressures

• 2019–20: Food inflation spiked due to unseasonal rains damaging kharif onions in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh, and potato crops in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

• Pandemic Years (2020–21): Inflation pressures persisted, worsened by supply disruptions.

• 2021–22: Inflation eased temporarily before resurging with post-pandemic demand and the Russia–Ukraine war.

• 2023–24: Erratic weather again triggered fresh supply shocks.

Key Vegetable Shocks:

• Tomatoes (2023): Heavy rains in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka cut production by 10.9% and 12.9%, pushing Azadpur Mandi prices up to ₹67/kg (from ₹18 in June).

• Onions (2023): Unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Maharashtra reduced output by 28.5%, lifting prices to ₹39/kg in November.

• Potatoes (2023–24): Unseasonal rain in West Bengal and frost in Uttar Pradesh slashed production by 7%, sustaining high prices into 2024.

• 2024: The hottest year on record, marked by heatwaves and erratic rains, drove all three vegetables above historical price levels.

The consequences were stark: vegetable inflation soared to 37% in July 2023 (tomato shock) and 42% in October 2024 (potato shortfall), while overall consumer food price inflation peaked at 11.5% in July 2023 and 10.87% in October 2024.

Way Forward

Experts stress the need for urgent adaptation measures to cushion both farmers and consumers against climate-induced volatility:

• Develop climate-resilient crop varieties and promote protected cultivation (e.g., greenhouses for tomatoes).

• Build resilient supply chains with cold storage, refrigerated transport, and modern warehouses.

• Deploy weather-informed forecasting systems and timely advisories to guide farmers’ decisions.

• Strengthen social safety nets through crop insurance, price stabilization funds, and nutrition support.

• Encourage cluster farming and collective action to reduce post-harvest losses and market shocks.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy