Methane Emissions Still Rising, but 2030 Projections Improve: UNEP’s Global Methane Status Report

Methane emissions continue to rise globally, but updated projections for 2030 show signs of improvement due to strengthened policies, regulations, and shifting market trends, according to the first official status update since the Global Methane Pledge. The Global Methane Status Report, released by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) at COP30, provides the most comprehensive assessment yet of global efforts to curb methane — a greenhouse gas responsible for nearly one-third of today’s warming.

Climate experts warn that rising methane levels are intensifying extreme heat events. “Rising methane emissions contribute to global warming, making heat waves more frequent and intense,” said Dr. Chloe Brimicombe, Climate Scientist and Extreme Health Specialist at the Royal Meteorological Society. She emphasized that reducing methane offers one of the fastest ways to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related illnesses and deaths.

Improved Outlook Driven by Policy Shifts

The report highlights that 65% of countries under the Paris Agreement now include methane-focused measures in their latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These plans, if fully implemented, could reverse the upward trend by the end of this decade, marking an unprecedented decline in methane emissions.

Even though methane emissions are still increasing, the report notes that current 2030 emissions projections are lower than earlier forecasts due to:

• New waste regulations in Europe and North America

• Slower natural gas market growth between 2020 and 2024

• Strengthened sectoral methane control policies

• Progress Encouraging but Not Enough for 2030 Target

Under present national plans, methane emissions could be reduced by 8% below 2020 levels by 2030, representing the largest and most sustained decline in history. However, this falls short of the Global Methane Pledge goal of a 30% reduction by 2030.

Achieving the target will require rapid deployment of maximum technically feasible reductions across the energy, agriculture, and waste sectors.

Solutions Ready and Highly Cost-Effective

The report underscores that available solutions can deliver significant reductions at low cost:

• Energy sector mitigation can deliver 72% of potential global methane cuts

• Waste sector: 18% of mitigation potential

• Agriculture: 10%

Actions include leak detection and repair, plugging abandoned oil and gas wells, improved rice cultivation water management, and better separation and treatment of organic waste. Over 80% of the 2030 reduction potential can be achieved cost-effectively.

Full implementation could prevent 180,000 premature deaths and save 19 million tonnes of crops annually by 2030. Fossil fuel sector mitigation alone would cost just 2% of the sector’s 2023 income.

G20+ Nations Hold the Key

The report emphasizes that 72% of global methane mitigation potential lies within G20+ countries. Emissions from these nations could fall by 36% by 2030, provided comprehensive actions are taken across agriculture, waste, and fossil fuel systems.

Stronger measurement, reporting, and financing frameworks will be crucial to achieving these reductions.

Leaders Call for Urgent Scale-Up

Global leaders urged nations to act swiftly and decisively:

Julie Dabrusin, Canada’s Minister of Environment and Climate Change and Co-Convener of the Global Methane Pledge, said: “In just four years, we have made improvements, but we must continue to drive faster, deeper methane cuts. Every tonne reduced brings us closer to cleaner air and resilient communities.”

Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, added: “The Global Methane Pledge has transformed ambition into tangible progress. Our task now is to scale these solutions rapidly and keep 1.5°C within reach.”

Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director, emphasized the broader benefits: “Reducing methane emissions is one of the most immediate and effective steps we can take to slow the climate crisis while protecting human health and ensuring food security.”

A Critical Window for Action

The report concludes that the next five years will determine whether the world can seize this opportunity and meet the 2030 methane reduction target. Accelerated action across major emitting sectors could unlock cleaner air, stronger economies, improved food security, and a safer climate for generations.

The writer of this article is Dr. Seema Javed, an environmentalist & a communications professional in the field of climate and energy